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What are the chances of an asteroid hitting earth in 2032?

Why the likelihood of planetary impact changed as asteroid 2024 YR4 approached.

On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth.

Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.

The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero.

Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Hal Haines
Editor: Richard Vadon

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9 minutes

Last on

Mon 24 Mar 2025 00:50GMT
BBC World Service except East and Southern Africa & West and Central Africa

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  • Sat 22 Mar 2025 05:50GMT
    BBC World Service except East and Southern Africa, Europe and the Middle East & West and Central Africa & Live News
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  • Mon 24 Mar 2025 00:50GMT
    BBC World Service except East and Southern Africa & West and Central Africa

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